The ongoing gasoline crisis in Russia has sparked intense interest and concern, with Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries playing a pivotal role. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of this crisis, exploring its causes, consequences, and potential long-term effects.
The Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Refineries
The strikes on Russian refineries have been relentless, with at least 66 reported attacks on fuel and energy infrastructure between January and July 2026. These strikes have targeted not only refineries but also oil depots and terminals, with a particular focus on the refineries themselves, accounting for 44 of the 66 attacks.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the strategic nature of these strikes. Ukraine's armed forces have been striking across the entire refining chain, from plants to port logistics, with a clear understanding of the vulnerabilities in Russia's fuel system. The strikes have grown more frequent, with a peak in June, indicating a well-coordinated and targeted campaign.
One thing that immediately stands out is the impact of these strikes on Russia's refining capacity. When a primary processing unit, known as an AVT, is damaged, a refinery may significantly reduce or even halt its intake of crude oil. This has a cascading effect on fuel production and supply, leading to a severe gasoline crisis.
Analyzing the Consequences: A Closer Look at Exchange Trading Data
In the absence of detailed official information, exchange trading data provides an indirect yet insightful view of the crisis. Meduza's analysis of SPIMEX trading data from January to early July 2026 reveals a stark picture. Average daily sales of gasoline and diesel combined have dropped significantly, with a 38% decrease in trading volume compared to June 2025. Prices, on the other hand, have soared, increasing by 37% on average.
The data also allows us to examine specific delivery bases, providing a more granular view of the impact on major refineries. For instance, sales from the Moscow refinery's delivery bases plummeted to about 400 tons per day after the June strikes, a mere tenth of the pre-strike average. Similar declines were observed at Taneco, Norsi, Kinef, and the Samara group of refineries.
Compensating for Lost Volumes: A Challenging Task
Under normal circumstances, a drop in supply from one refinery could be offset by deliveries from other plants, stockpiles, or redirected export volumes. However, when strikes occur in waves and target multiple large refineries simultaneously, compensating for lost volumes becomes increasingly difficult. This is evident in the data, where we see a dual process: a portion of the supply vanishes from the exchange, and the remaining fuel becomes more expensive.
Importing Gasoline: A Temporary Solution
In response to the shortage, Russia has turned to importing gasoline, with reports of at least 60,000 tons sent from India and plans to import roughly 400,000 tons monthly. However, this is a temporary fix, and the restrictions on fuel supply and the crisis itself have not been resolved. The shortage continues to be felt acutely, with prices climbing and Russians facing enormous lines for gasoline.
Conclusion: A Complex and Ongoing Crisis
The gasoline crisis in Russia is a complex issue with far-reaching implications. The strikes on refineries have had a profound impact on fuel production and supply, leading to a severe crisis. While imports and stockpiles can provide temporary relief, the underlying issue remains unresolved. The crisis highlights the vulnerability of Russia's fuel system and the strategic importance of its refineries. As the situation unfolds, it will be interesting to see how Russia adapts and responds to this ongoing challenge.
In my opinion, this crisis serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of energy systems and the potential consequences of disruptions. It also underscores the importance of resilience and preparedness in the face of such crises.
